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In a wild wild year, the topic that dwarfed them all was the commission lawsuits and the NAR settlement. To miss it would be akin to tossing a horseshoe in a wide corral; unless you fling it straight into the sky, you’re guaranteed to hit something. No sense in beating this to death, as I’m certain all of us are sick of hearing and talking about the ❇️$418 million judgement day❇️.

I’d wager 65% of the industry conversations I had over the previous 12 months involved at least one question about the lawsuits/settlement. Among residential industry convos, that number is at least 90%. One ramification is the growing selection of discount brokerage models promising to cut commissions—among them ❇️Modern Realty❇️, ❇️Shay❇️, ❇️Landian❇️, reAlpha, ❇️TurboHome❇️, and Listella. Following ❇️Homie’s demise❇️, the ❇️discount graveyard❇️ will surely grow in 2025. 

Here’s a snapshot of the most notable industry dynamics that played out:

AI Onslaught: ❇️In 2023❇️, AI exploded out of a cannon. On the adoption front, 2024 was more like a constant engine churning in the background. If we’re talking venture activity, a series of rocket launches as companies closed massive $100 million rounds—or more than $6 billion, in the case of xAI and OpenAI. AI adoption still centers around marketing and sales, but expect that to diversify in the years ahead. Will burning all that VC fuel result in profitability (& liquidity) years down the line? We'll save that reflection for a future year.

Fiscal Control: As the correction in startup funding continued, businesses spent 2024 pursuing operational efficiency and focusing on getting revenue in the door. With fewer big funding rounds and less capital to go around this year, companies are finding ways to succeed with existing resources. ❇️Placemakr is among those late-stage companies that reached profitability❇️.

Real estate recession: According to NAR in November, “existing-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.15 million, the swiftest pace since March (4.22 million).”

The downward transaction volume has set the industry into a funk—silver dollars to grease the wheels remain elusive. Agents are hurting, as are the array of startups whose lifeblood depends on selling those practitioners products and services. As long as interest rates stay high and inventory remains suppressed at sub 1.5 million units, chilling winds carrying dust particles will continue blanketing real estate in a reddish haze.

Compass’ CCP Crusade: There’s no consumer leg to stand on that removing CCP will improve anything. Provide me data—any data—showing it's in the seller's best financial interests to keep their listing off the MLS. I’m still waiting, and will be for eternity. Yet, somehow, the past quarter or two, it feels like all the residential industry has talked about. Personally, I’m not interested in backtracking twenty years on the real estate search landscape. Not sure how my opinion can be any clearer.

Fundraising & Liquidity Woes: The global VC funding market is relatively flat, and likely down if you take away “AI” rounds. It’s not as if there wasn’t any funding and M&A activity: ❇️WeWork found a new corporate overlord❇️ and ❇️Mynd was acquired by Roofstock❇️. ❇️Setpoint raised a $31 million Series B and Elise AI closed a $75 million Series D❇️. Heck, ❇️Doorloop raised $100 million (Series B)❇️. But, big venture rounds like these were few and far between. Great companies raised, but the lower and middle rungs weren’t so lucky.

And, with that, time to saddle up and see how we did…

REFLECTIONS ON 2024

How did we fare? Let’s reflect on several of ❇️the predictions and trends published a year ago❇️.

**Reflections are written by those who wrote the original entry a year ago, unless a DM is in front of them. In which case, they are my thoughts.

PROPTECH TRENDS

SURGING ON OFFERS
Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

If you believe ❇️the endgame is an offers platform across every home in the country❇️, then you must believe that an offers platform will eventually gain steam on the adoption front. It’s going to be a banner year for those who have survived the carnage. I’m looking at you, Final Offer, Openn, Offer1, DecentRE Property Exchange (DPX), and Homwel.

Verdict: Draw
Reflection: While the year did mark the acquisition of Openn’s North American business by Final Offer, I wouldn’t say the mass agent population has moved over to a digital offer process. Maybe 2025 is the year…

RISE OF DISCOUNTED BUSINESS MODELS
Teresa Grobecker, CEO, Consortia

2023’s most notable lawsuit will usher in unprecedented changes in compensation decisions by buyers and an array of new (or recycled) business models to service them. Expect a resurgence in flat-fee and discount brokerage services to list properties on the MLS. As more of the transaction is data driven, there is less need for negotiations. 

Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

The graveyard is littered with bodies ❇️that are well documented❇️. The real question is whether fallout from ❇️the Burnett/Sitzer verdict❇️—and all its follow-on legal action still unfolding—changes consumer behavior in the near term. Many tech geeks have long-thought agents are overpaid. But, consumers haven’t agreed to the tune of adopting discounted models, for all the reasons outlined in ❇️my 15-year perspective❇️ on the rocky roads experienced by Redfin, Clever, Opendoor/Open Listings, Houwzer, Trelora, Redefy and others. Will this time be different? Although new models are certainly overdue for adoption, I’m convinced the time horizon for adoption coming to fruition is beyond 2024.

Verdict: (Resounding) Win
DM Reflection: The resurgence most certainly did occur. The likes of ❇️Modern Realty❇️, ❇️Shay❇️, ❇️Landian❇️, reAlpha, ❇️TurboHome❇️, and Listella all aim to conquer. The list will only grow in 2025, though I remain skeptical consumer adoption will follow.

ANTI IDX
Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

Multiple big brokerages/franchises will follow ❇️Howard Hanna’s lead❇️ and abandon IDX in one or more markets. The success of the strategy in terms of increasing in-house transactions and market share will cause others to follow. Compass will be the first pendulum to shift and wheel to drop, with the Bay Area as its testing ground.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: Aside from Howard Hanna, I haven’t heard any news of brokerage’s kicking IDX to the curb.

THE END OF AI EXPERIMENTATION
Anthemos Georgiades, Co-founder, Zumper

AI will transition from an experiment to a core pillar of proptech marketplaces. It will largely work behind the scenes on things like listing quality, image ordering, or customer service efficiency—it will become part of everything. The biggest question of 2024: Can it sit front of house?

Can generative AI replace or at least amplify Zumper’s core search experience? We're working on it.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: This happened! Many proptech portals brought AI to the front of the house, and several have deployed it in the background for image sorting & tagging. We certainly leaned in strongly at Zumper, launching our on-platform AI assistant Zoe in November. Just in time for EOY :)

MAINSTREAM DIGITIZATION OF RENTALS
Anthemos Georgiades, Co-founder, Zumper

Technology will become increasingly important, and management companies will continue upping the tech ante with virtual tours and staging, and even drone tours. More than 27 percent of renters pay rent digitally via online tools, and 42 percent say they would prefer paying digitally. These tactics are especially important to attracting younger renters: According to a Zumper survey, more than 22 percent of Gen Z (ages 26 and under) signed a lease for an apartment they’d only seen online.

Verdict: Draw
Reflection: We continued to see the digitization of the search-to-lease funnel, with breakout years for companies like Elise.AI and Bilt. However, there’s still a lot more work to do across all of us.

LAUNCH OF FIRST AI REAL ESTATE AGENT
Robert Hahn, Partner, 7DS Associates
[Adapted from Notorious Rob’s Seven Predictions for 2024]

The logic for the first “AI Real Estate Agent” launch in 2024 is inescapable. Rather than use a real estate agent to access an AI tool, they will be relied on by buyers and sellers for advice, psychological reassurance, and local on-the-ground knowledge. Beyond that, an AI tool can and will do just about everything else.

Deploying on the sale of existing homes will be the last place we see AI Agents launch—the stakes are too high. Instead, AI is coming for low-stakes areas of residential real estate that the industry as a whole largely ignores: The rentals space, where all of that “most important decision” stuff goes out the window if we’re talking about a young couple looking for a place to rent. Landlords call the shots, so most real estate agents don’t do a whole lot for a renter. For a would-be tenant, an AI Agent would provide almost all of the value of a human real estate agent: It will scour the internets for a place via images and search terms, help the tenant understand the leasing process and terms, and facilitate credit checks and deposits.

For the landlord, most of what a leasing agent does is paperwork and process—things that computers and AI excel at. So much of property management can be automated, and good AI will be able to handle all of that as well. Automate marketing with AI? Then have the AI automatically upload the rental listing to all the portals? Sure, why not.

For 2024 and a couple of years beyond, home resale real estate agents have little to fear from AI. So to that extent, all of the industry cheerleaders are correct. But a few years from now? Watch out.

Another area safe in 2024 but primed for upheaval: New Construction. National homebuilders like Pulte or KB Homes have both the capital to put into building an AI Buyer Agent, the financial incentive to do so, and all the data the AI needs to train itself.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: We haven’t seen AI being leveraged widely in New Construction, but property management is seeing companies deploy AI assistants and agents. Google search reveals Stan.ai, Elise AI, and others.

GROWING TOGETHER
Duke Long, EIR/Venture Advisor, Second Century Ventures

Make no mistake about it, consolidation is coming. In a big, big way. Platforms working together to leverage advantages (distribution) and lessen disadvantages (costs) is the future. The smart ones are already on this path, or will jump on the train. Collaboration is nothing new, but we’ll see far more this year than in past years. Those who resist will die on the vine.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: How many have fallen away because of the tight VC market? How many will need to stay on the integration and partnership path? The ones that will again survive.

A PARADIGM SHIFT: LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION → DATA, DATA, DATA
Drew Fabrikant, Founder, Scout

Hyper-personalization is the new norm. The days of searching by bedroom count, size, and price are gone—replaced by algorithms and advanced filters that consider factors such as weather resistance, flood zones, electrical efficiency, and even home-office sun exposure.

Buyer and seller demand for these tailored services will create an expectation that brokers and agents will have instant access to even obscure data within this wealth of information.

LLMs are in a prime position to help brokers and agents deliver. These evolving preferences underscore the pivotal role that data plays in shaping the way buyers perceive and select their dream homes and how commissions will be won.

Verdict: (Major) Win
Reflection: This trend is only accelerating. Agents, brokers, and portals are increasingly integrating LLMs for search incorporating data points outside of real estate, alone—Zillow, ListAssist, and Purlin, are a few leading the charge. The future winners and losers will be defined by the availability of data, specifically around previously hard-to-access data like climate resilience, energy efficiency, and lifestyle. At Scout, we’ve leaned into this trend hard, building the flexibility to integrate nearly 40K APIs.

AI INFILTRATES FINANCE AND INSURANCE
Nate Smoyer, Director of Growth, Real Estate Programs at HW Media

AI is more than just a buzzword for what’s to come: It is set to revolutionize underwriting processes and future risk assessments, especially related to climate change. Many companies are already on this path, employing AI in various capacities, from enhancing property maintenance to deploying sophisticated data solutions for financial institutions.

Verdict: Draw
Reflection: We saw the implementation of AI in many capacities launched and improved on this year. Underwriting risk is a significant category investing in AI as proven by Core Logic, Clear Capital, and Faura. However, it’s too soon to say any one thing has been “revolutionized”—and that’s to be expected. The industry will need more than a year for that. 

MAINTENANCE AND DATA UNITE
Nate Smoyer, Director of Growth, Real Estate Programs at HW Media 

Often overlooked, maintenance is becoming a critical area for property management companies, DIY owners, and even those managing industrial buildings. With the current economic climate dictating longer property holding periods, and the challenge of increasing yields without raising rents, efficiency in maintenance is more important than ever. We're going to see a focus on data-driven approaches to understanding and managing maintenance costs and operations. The integration of digital-first services that connect owners and managers with service providers will be key in making maintenance more efficient and effective.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: Any time we see meaningful attention given to maintenance (of buildings or businesses) is a good thing. The property management industry has been embracing better maintenance services as evident by the growth of several startups, such as Pest Share and Lula. The pure data side of this being spearheaded by Property Meld, who’s achieved significant industry recognition, is further evidence that aggregating maintenance data across a portfolio to make better decisions is becoming a needle moving in PM businesses.

BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY TAKES PRIORITY
Nate Smoyer, Director of Growth, Real Estate Programs at HW Media

We’ll continue to see a shift in focus toward business sustainability. I’m not talking about environmental stewardship; I’m talking about ensuring businesses can withstand challenging periods of time without raising funds. Can your business handle reduced transaction volumes or lower yields for a few years? With potentially longer gaps between rounds of venture capital funding and more modest valuations than we've seen in the past, creating a business that generates cash and has a clear path to profitability will be more than what’s popular on X (Twitter)—it’ll be necessary. Those who can demonstrate this will undoubtedly attract more attention and investment.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: This was absolutely a theme throughout 2024. We saw less big funding rounds, and fewer frequent rounds of raising capital, which points to companies having been hunkering down to work with what they have, pursuing operational efficiency, and focusing on getting revenue in the door. This trend will stick for another year or so as the correction in startup funding (especially within the residential real estate vertical) is deployed at a slower clip. 

SUSTAINABILITY METRICS FOR THE WIN
Alexey Dubov, Co-founder, Mighty Buildings and BuildTech

Sustainability metrics will play an increasingly important role in building management, driving the adoption of tech-enabled solutions that can help reduce energy consumption and minimize environmental impact. We should expect record-high investment activities in this category.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: The first part is definitely true. There is an increase in regulations and requirements that are driving the adoption of various technological solutions. This push is coming from both large corporations and regulatory bodies. We observe more requirements being implemented that different operators and others need to comply with. However, on the other hand, overall (all categories) investment has decreased, and we are not seeing record-high investment levels.

CONVENIENCE WILL DRIVE RETAIL RECOVERY
Joe Dahleen 

Brick-and-mortar retail is not dead. A great deal of it, however, is obsolete. As we surge into 2024, it's clear that the retail industry is evolving to meet changing consumer needs. The obsolescence of traditional brick-and-mortar stores has paved the way for the rise of convenient strip malls and high-amenity lifestyle centers, which are fast becoming all the rage. These innovative developments are redefining our shopping experiences and driving a robust retail recovery.

The transformation of underutilized shopping malls into thriving hubs aligning with modern demands is a trend worth noting. Retail operators who can creatively repurpose these spaces will find themselves at the helm of a flourishing business landscape, as consumers continue to seek convenience and quality in their retail experiences. One of my favorites is One Paseo in San Diego. I took my honey there for a date night—big hit.

Let's embrace this change as an exciting opportunity for growth and innovation in our commercial retail industry! Plus, it's a win for residents living close to these locations.

Verdict: Draw
Reflection: It's clear that convenience continues to be a driving force behind the industry's transformation. The data supports the shift towards convenient strip malls and high-amenity lifestyle centers that would play a pivotal role in retail recovery. Places like One Paseo in San Diego have become beacons of success, demonstrating that when retail spaces adapt to meet modern demands, they thrive. But during my last visit, I still saw a few empty storefronts. Therefore, we’ll call it a draw.

THE DATA CRE COMPANIES WILL BUY
Kevin Shtofman, Head of Innovation, Cherre

As the world of sales and lease comps gets murkier, enterprising developers and acquirers will look to other data sources to augment their decision-making—permitting data, incentives data, and consumer spending data will be high-ROI subscriptions. I’ll be watching companies like BCI, Builty, and Incentifind in this arena, in addition to established players like Mastercard.

Verdict: Draw
Reflection: Although many companies with proprietary data have performed well, most CRE firms consider buying data a necessary evil, not a pure alpha generator. The big folks (Costar, Corelogic, MSCI) are continuing to grow, and some niche data types are seeing success (zoning, permitting, demographics), while some are crowded and struggling (climate, incentives, POIs, contact information).

THE BRIGHT SPOTS EMERGE
Kevin Shtofman, Head of Innovation, Cherre

Greenfield Funds: With no assets holding them down, new funds can wait for the right deals, once asset repricing occurs. While it might take 6-12 months longer to deploy capital than before, returns will likely outperform competitors holding legacy assets.

Sub-Property Types: In the office sector, medical will outperform as the demand is still high, driven by retail consumers. This is not to be confused with life sciences real estate, which depends on the growth of venture-backed pharma startups as tenants. In multifamily, slowing rental growth and high interest rates will make market-rate multifamily tough sledding, but senior housing will outperform as demand continues to outstrip supply and our aging population is willing to pay higher rates for creature comforts where they reside.

New Proptech Launches: In 2009/10, new companies that started with innovation as a core attribute and limited capital spending outperformed the market. The same will happen this year from new and interesting firms that launch in the ashes of other company failures. This includes companies that launched in the last five years and responsibly sledded through Covid without much fanfare. A few to watch are Pronto Housing, Dwellsy, and RealtyAds.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: Spot on for the sub-property types, as Medical Office has outperformed Life Sciences. What wasn’t mentioned, and has attracted a ton of capital, has been Data Centers. The jury is still out on Greenfield Funds, which have been slow to make deals, but are excited given the recent election. All three referenced proptechs have grown this year, so continue to watch them. Also be looking at the growth of the fraud prevention space in Multifamily, which has seen a ton of investment. A couple to watch here are 100 and VERO.

CRE DEAL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MUTED
Kevin Shtofman, Head of Innovation, Cherre

If a buyer offers you, as a net lease owner with stable tenants, a seven-cap, but your debt isn't due for 5+ years, why would you sell? Alternatively, if you own a building with a questionable rent roll, you'd love to sell … but who would buy? The only deals getting done for the at-risk office sector are opportunistic developers that are buying the underlying land to reposition the asset. For multifamily, these deals will be driven by owners who weren't able to refinance their badly-timed, floating-rate debt and are forced to sell.

I think we will see a uniquely disparate gap between the activity in high-tax states vs low-tax states, where institutions with dry powder will be more opportunistic.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: Bullseye.

Overall 2024 Proptech Trend Score: 9-2-5

PREDICTIONS

MMM COMEBACK WITH A TWIST
Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

❇️Removing Make Me Move❇️ still makes no sense, unless a full-scale offers platform rolled out across every home in the country is in the works. Such a product will cover on-market or off-market—with integrated title, mortgage, and closing from both Zillow’s own product suite and others in the ecosystem. The plethora of lawsuits, and the likely divorcing of commissions, makes the timing of this product announcement finally right.

*Special bonus: The product announcement will come with the acquisition of an offers startup...and I'll name Final Offer.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: Another year goes by without Zillow re-entering the MMM space. Sigh. I'll keep trying, with the belief that it's a matter of when not if.

STR ESTIMATES ON REALTOR.COM
Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

Short-term rental estimates. Virtually every SaaS platform for investors has them already. Someone’s going to put them in front of consumers sooner rather than later. Realtor.com will build upon ❇️their existing Airbnb collaboration❇️ and be the one to lead the way.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: It pains me to say, no developments were made on this front.

LYFT IS NO MORE
Stephen Del Percio, SVP & Deputy General Counsel, WSP

Lyft has been outcompeted by Uber and its $120B market cap compared to Lyft’s own $5B.Uber, Airbnb, Expedia, or maybe another legacy travel company— an airline, even?—will acquire Lyft in 2024.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: Lyft is still alive and kicking, but could still happen, particularly after the company announced in a September SEC filing that it plans to sell off pieces of its bike and scooter businesses, as well as cut 1% of its workforce. Cleaning up the balance sheet in advance of a sale or just trying to keep the lights on? Either way, I believe we will get an answer in 2025.

WEWORK IS PURCHASED OUT OF BANKRUPTCY…
Stephen Del Percio, SVP & Deputy General Counsel, WSP

…but by someone other than Adam Neumann. 

Verdict: Win
Reflection: It always seemed like a longshot that Neumann would return to WeWork. (Instead, and maybe not surprisingly, he spent 2024 somewhat controversially expanding his new ❇️co-working/co-living concept Flow❇️ in Miami and Nashville). Now ❇️backed by Yardi❇️ and with a former Cushman & Wakefield exec installed as its CEO, WeWork is instead looking to expand in the suburbs even as big tech companies, banks, and other firms will begin calling back employees five days per week starting in January. The only prediction that seems safe in the flexspace sector is to more volatility in 2025.

REDFIN DOUBLES IN VALUE
Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

With a current market cap of 1.14 billion (as of 1/2/2023), Redfin will end the year up more than 100%. I still believe ❇️my statement from 2020❇️:

Redfin is best positioned to make the greatest impact on society. Not to generate the most returns, but to rewrite real estate history for the better.

The most impactful brokerage to ever be created. Maybe I’ll die on the sword, but I’m still bullish that investors will eventually reward that. ❇️We’ll be tracking progress closely❇️.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: As of December 23rd, Redfin comes in at $1.07 billion…so is actually down YoY.

DEEP POCKETED EUROPEAN OR CHINESE PLAYER MAKES AN UNIMAGINABLE ACQUISITION
Sam Westelman 

Let’s just throw a dart at this provocative headline. Here’s your appetizer. Australian powerhouse Raine & Horne sets its sights on the US market. They make a cash and stock offer for United or HomeSmart to get a piece of those juicy nationwide footprints. Boom! That puts them at 1%-ish of the US residential market, and primes them to add some global flair on these shores. And for the main course, Singaporean state sovereign fund Temasek Holdings thinks Place & Brivity look like tasty snacks. They leave the very capable management in place, but task them with dominating the retail brokerage space and being the next incarnation of NAR.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: “Survey says…Loss!” Consolation prize? I’ll have to settle for the Cuisinart blender. However looking back at the prediction, I’m doubling down on the same idea for 2025. With transaction levels being as low as they are and pressure on commissions there will be some ripe targets.

Overall 2024 Proptech Predictions Score: 1-5

CONTECH CENTRAL

LIME FINALLY IPOS
Stephen Del Percio, SVP & Deputy General Counsel, WSP

Bird is bankrupt, interest rates are falling—to the delight of capital-intensive businesses—and 2024 is going to be Lime’s year. The privately held micro mobility service made $27M in EBITDA in 2023 and will find itself the last firm in this space still standing. Whether it has a sustainable business model remains to be seen, but as RTO mandates increase throughout 2024, perhaps it can benefit from an increase in carbon-friendly alternative transportation choices made by a younger generation of office workers. 

Verdict: Loss (but 2025 is the year!)
Reflection: It’s true that Lime did not IPO in 2024. But persistent inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts from the Fed were headwinds for the IPO markets generally. I still believe that the macro trends I pointed out above exist. More importantly, Lime CEO Wayne Ting told reporters last month that the company is “ready” to float on the NYSE in 2025.

BIG TECH PURCHASES A LEGACY AEC FIRM
Stephen Del Percio, SVP & Deputy General Counsel, WSP

AI applications are driving increased demand for data center capacity. Yet at the same time there is rising concern about the carbon footprint of AI products, necessitating innovation in data center operations. This will lead one of the FANGMANs to vertically integrate their design and construction data center supply chains through the acquisition of a legacy AEC company.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: In 2024, Meta announced multiple, multi-billion-dollar data center construction contracts with industry heavyweights that included Turner Construction, DPR, Hensel-Phelps, and Mortenson. While the vertical integration I envisioned did not materialize in 2024, many of the factors that underpinned it are flourishing. And these trends are just getting started. In fact, while the IT consulting firm Cognizant is not a FANGMAN, it has a $33B market cap and spent over $1B to acquire the PE-backed engineering services company Belcan during 2024 Q3. I think there will be more activity in this space in 2025. 

MAJOR M&A SHAKES AEC INDUSTRY
Stephen Del Percio, SVP & Deputy General Counsel, WSP

As federal infrastructure dollars continue to swell design and construction backlogs, publicly traded firms will realize the only way to convert them into actual revenue will be through leveraging each other’s resources.  I’ve been predicting this for several years now (and that I swore I was done making this prediction after 2023), but the conditions seem so ripe in 2024 that I’m doubling down once again. 

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: Three-for-three with predictions that were derailed by higher-than-expected interest rates and inflationary pressures. While much of the funding from Joe Biden’s infrastructure law is already committed, it is not unreasonable to think that chaos within the Trump administration could cause problems for infrastructure funding generally, in addition to nascent industries like offshore wind. Whether this in turn impacts the backlogs and bottom lines of publicly traded AEC firms like AECOM, Jacobs, Tutor-Perini, and others remains to be seen. But choppy markets and funding conditions could translate into boards believing “bigger is better” and drive some shotgun marriages.

INFUSION OF AI-POWERED DESIGN TOOLS AND WORKFLOWS FOR AEC
Alexey Dubov, Co-founder, Mighty Buildings and BuildTech
 
Autodesk will acquire a startup that specializes in AI-enabled design workflows, or release functionality that streamlines 20% of the design architecture.

Verdict: Loss
Reflection: Autodesk recently acquired Wonder Dynamics, an AI-enabled visualization tool. Additionally, Autodesk has introduced several AI-enabled tools and components for their workflows. However, we have not yet observed any acquisitions aimed at streamlining the design process in AEC.

SURGE IN PREFAB
Alexey Dubov, Co-founder, Mighty Buildings and BuildTech

There will be a surge in prefabricated modular construction, which will provide builders with greater flexibility and enable them to complete projects without the headache of labor shortage on each and every project. We will witness an upsurge in successful case studies from prefab companies in the US executing record-high projects in 2024.

Verdict: Draw
Reflection: Many prefab modular companies are facing tough times or going out of business this year, which is common during economic downturns. However, a significant number of projects and construction companies are increasingly using prefab solutions. This trend is positive, so I hesitate to call it a loss. While there may be fewer successful case studies, the increased utilization of prefab components is certainly a win.

Image generator: Dall-E 3
Prompt: Generate a photorealistic image of a factory making prefab homes

AFFORDABLE HOUSING THROUGH PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS
Bryan Copley, CEO, Co-founder, CityBldr 

Federal, state, and local governments will offer incentives and subsidies to investors, builders, developers, innovators, and preservers of affordable housing. Conversions of office to multifamily will make headlines as owners and cities alike seek ways to stem the glut of empty buildings—1 billion square feet and counting—in urban cores across the country.

Verdict: Win
Reflection: The federal government as well as states, counties and cities have created a number of incentives this year to boost housing production, both through new development and conversion of obsolete or empty office buildings into multifamily housing. However, the big bump will likely come from the reveal of the new administration’s plan to use federally owned land to boost housing development in 2025.

Overall 2024 Contech Prediction Score: 1-4-1

To recap...

Overall 2024 Proptech Trend Score: 9-2-5
Overall 2024 Proptech Predictions Score: 1-5
Overall 2024 Contech Prediction Score: 1-4-1

With many shots from the .45 Colt having strayed off their mark, let's turn the chapter on 2024. Our “2025 Predictions” (seeking contributions, still) will come out after the New Year. Have a happy holiday season.